Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
