A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
